• Tesla robotaxi timeline promises to “move the financial needle” as vehicle sales plummet 13%.
• Investors remain sceptical of Musk’s ambitious timeline, citing his previous unfulfilled promises.

As Tesla robotaxi plans accelerate amid declining vehicle sales, Elon Musk’s latest autonomous driving timeline has created enthusiasm and deep scepticism among investors. With Tesla’s core automotive business struggling—vehicle sales dropped 13% in the first quarter of 2025—the company appears to be doubling down on its autonomous driving ambitions as a potential lifeline. 

Recent testing has intensified, with the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reporting that Tesla has “expanded its testing of a ride-share app to employees in Austin, Texas” as it pushes toward a summer launch. The timing is hardly coincidental. 

Tesla’s recent earnings call, which reported its “worst quarter in years,” was peppered with autonomous driving promises and punctuated by Musk’s bold declaration that robotaxis would “move the financial needle in a significant way” by late 2026. 

According to SCMP, Musk even stated he would “pull back significantly from his work with the US government to refocus on Tesla,” highlighting the urgency behind this strategic pivot toward autonomous technology as the company’s traditional business model shows clear signs of weakness.

For Tesla bulls, this represents the long-awaited “fundamental inflexion” that could transform the company from a struggling automaker into a revolutionary mobility provider. “This is happening, this is coming soon. 

They have the miles, the safety record and the technology they need,” said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Tesla investor Zacks Investment Management, as reported by Reuters.

But for sceptics and industry analysts, the robotaxi timeline raises serious questions about feasibility, regulatory approval, and Musk’s track record of missed deadlines.

The robotaxi roadmap

Tesla’s current timeline includes launching a paid robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, by June, initially with just 10-20 Model Y vehicles equipped with self-driving software. The company plans to expand to other US markets later this year, with a dedicated autonomous “Cybercab” entering production in 2026.

SCMP reports that Tesla has already completed “more than 1,500 trips and 15,000 miles (24,140km) of driving” in its employee testing program. The company has posted glimpses of this testing on social media, prompting Musk to comment that they’re “getting ready for unsupervised self-driving.” 

Notably, the current testing still requires “a safety driver present to intervene as needed,” despite Tesla marketing the technology as “full self-driving.”

Musk claims these autonomous vehicles will begin to “affect the bottom line of the company, and start to be fundamental” by the second half of 2026. He further predicted “millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year” during the company’s recent earnings call.

This optimistic timeline comes from the same CEO who famously predicted in 2019 that “next year [2020], for sure, we’ll have over one million robotaxis on the road.” That prediction, like many others, failed to materialize.

Investor enthusiasm vs. Industry scepticism

The robotaxi announcement has created a striking divide between Tesla’s most enthusiastic backers and more cautious industry observers.

“Now is the time for the fundamental inflexion that we’re all hoping for,” said Blake Anderson, associate portfolio manager at Carson Group, a Tesla investor. “Most bullish investors and analysts tie the bulk of Tesla’s stock value to its plans for a massive robotaxi and autonomous-driving subscription business,” Reuters reports.

However, Seth Goldstein, equity strategist at Morningstar, characterized Musk’s timeline as “a very quick pace” for a technology that has taken competitors such as Alphabet’s Waymo “nearly a decade to work out.” Goldstein believes Tesla can fine-tune its technology by late 2026 but likely won’t have a Waymo-competitive system until 2028.

The hard questions ahead

As Tesla transitions from promises to implementation, investors will seek concrete evidence of viability. Anderson wants to see specifics on pricing per mile, profitability models, and—crucially—safety metrics showing how often Tesla vehicles must disengage from autonomous mode.

“Safety is the thing they control the most, so I want proof that what they do control is ironed out,” Anderson told Reuters. “Then I have a much greater line of sight into the national rollout.”

Safety remains a central concern. On the earnings call, Musk claimed Tesla’s current self-driving technology would require driving 10,000 miles on average “before you get in an accident or an intervention.” 

Yet, Reuters notes that “Tesla as of last year had not submitted data on interventions to regulators in California like other autonomous vehicle companies such as Waymo and Amazon’s Zoox.”

The regulatory gauntlet

Even if the technology proves viable, Tesla faces significant regulatory hurdles. The company has received preliminary permits in California but “needs several more permits from state agencies before it can launch a paid robotaxi service,” according to Reuters. 

Notably, while Musk previously mentioned a California launch by year-end during January and October earnings calls, California wasn’t mentioned during Tuesday’s call.

According to SCMP, Tesla “has been in talks with the city of Austin about safety expectations” and recently “was granted approval in California to begin carrying passengers.” However, the company “will need further approvals to give fully autonomous rides.” 

This regulatory gauntlet is particularly challenging as “the approvals needed for widespread launch could be years away,” while competitors like Waymo have “already deployed driverless cars on public roads in select cities, including Austin.”

A defining moment for Tesla

Tesla’s pivot toward robotaxis represents a potential turning point for the company—either the beginning of a remarkable second act or another in a series of unfulfilled promises. With its traditional business model under pressure, the company appears to be gambling its future on autonomous technology.

“Now that they’ve guided to an actual timeline for revenue, that’s a point they’ll be held to,” Goldstein told Reuters, underscoring the high stakes for Tesla as it transitions from ambitious projections to execution.

Whether this technological gambit represents Musk’s last stand or a visionary pivot that will reshape transportation remains to be seen. What’s clear is that with declining vehicle sales and increasing competition in the EV market, Tesla’s future may hinge on its ability to deliver on these ambitious autonomous driving promises—and deliver soon.